Northern Bearing ✦

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% after an unexpected April jobs loss. WTI fell 7% last week on ceasefire hopes, then jumped 4% Monday morning after Trump rejected Iran's response. US April CPI releases Tuesday. The BoC June 10 hike is now the minority view.

BoC held at 2.25% with conditional hike language. Shopify Q1 2026 results due before Tuesday's open with $2B buyback active. Warsh takes the Fed chair May 15. WTI near $101, gold at US$4,637, and the June 10 rate decision is live in both directions.

The Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve both announce rate decisions on April 29, hours apart. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon report after the close. WTI above $96, CNQ up 32% year-to-date, and the BoC's first MPR to formally incorporate the Iran energy shock lands Wednesday morning.

Before Monday's open, the USS Spruance seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska, S&P 500 futures slipped, WTI moved back into the $90 to $91 range, and gold pulled back on a firmer USD. Plus March CPI, the April 29 Bank of Canada MPR, and what the move means for Canadian self-directed investors.

S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time. Nasdaq posted its longest win streak since 2009. Gold hit US$4,860 per ounce. Carney secured a Liberal majority. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25%.