A U.S.-Iran ceasefire sent markets to record highs this week, but with oil still near $95 and the Strait of Hormuz barely reopened, the relief rally may be outrunning the reality — especially for Canadian energy investors riding TSX energy stocks that now face the other side of that trade.
Gold hit US$4,860/oz this week, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty from the US-Iran war, a weakening US dollar, and persistent global inflation. It has surged over 25% since early 2025 alone. The structural case — scarce supply, record institutional demand, and a softening USD — is now backed by multiple independent indicators pointing in the same direction. Canadian investors holding gold ETFs like ZGD or CGL.C have benefited further from CAD weakness amplifying USD-denominated gold returns.
This is not a recommendation. Do your own research before acting. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
→ fortune.com — Gold price April 16, 2026The US-Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 triggered an enormous relief rally: the S&P 500 climbed above 7,000 for the first time ever, and the Dow surged over 1,000 points in a single session. Oil fell 16% in one day from its war-elevated highs. But the ceasefire is shaky — violations have been reported on both sides, Strait of Hormuz traffic remains minimal, and the truce expires April 21. Markets are pricing peace before it exists.
→ cnbc.com — US-Iran ceasefire market reactionThe Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% at its March 18 meeting. Canadian inflation was 1.8% in February — within the 1–3% target band — and the Bank has signalled it expects to hold through 2026. The next rate decision on April 29 comes with a full Monetary Policy Report, which will be the first major macro read since the Iran ceasefire and the Carney majority. Bay Street expects no move, but the MPR language will matter.
TFSA ✓ — Stable rates make GICs a competitive safe option. See Section 05. → bankofcanada.ca — March 2026 rate decisionPrime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals secured a parliamentary majority this week after winning key by-elections, pushing their seat count to 174. The TSX rallied on the news, with SHOP, RY, and LULU among the movers cited. Analysts noted a majority gives Carney stability to pursue trade diversification and infrastructure spending — both viewed as positive for Canadian equities. USD/CAD softened slightly as the loonie firmed on broader USD weakness.
→ aljazeera.com — Carney majority governmentInitial US unemployment filings fell to 207,000 for the week ending April 11, beating expectations of 215,000. This keeps the Fed in its current holding pattern — no near-term cuts signal — and suggests the US economy is absorbing the geopolitical shock better than feared. For Canadian investors holding US equities or S&P 500 ETFs like VFV, a resilient US labour market supports continued earnings growth.
→ cnbc.com — US jobless claims April 11The market is trading on hope that the Iran situation resolves cleanly — but the ceasefire expires April 21 and oil is still elevated near $95. If you've been riding the energy rally in CNQ or ENB, it's worth asking whether you want to trim into strength or hold through what could be a volatile week. The Carney majority is a genuine positive for Canadian policy stability. The BoC hold isn't moving your GIC or bond math much — rates are staying put, which means the current 3.5–3.85% GIC window remains worth acting on if you have cash sitting idle in a savings account.
Energy was the runaway sector winner in Q1 2026 on both sides of the border, driven by the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushing WTI above $100 briefly. The ceasefire is now a double-edged sword for Canadian energy investors: CNQ was up 0.92% Thursday even as a deal loomed, but a full peace resolution could send oil back toward $70. Monitor carefully — energy's gain may have already been your entry point, not your exit.
→ communityamerica.com — Q1 2026 sector performanceFinancial stocks make up 30.7% of the TSX — the index's largest sector. TD and BMO traded modestly lower (-0.2% and -0.4%) this week as the energy rally cooled, but the Big Six overall remain fundamentally solid. Lower bond yields, flagged in the week's data, provide some support to bank stock valuations. RY remains a top-3 TSX holding by index weight.
→ spglobal.com — TSX sector compositionThe Nasdaq posted its 12th consecutive positive session this week, its longest win streak since 2009, closing at 24,102. Shopify (SHOP) — the TSX's technology bellwether and third-largest index constituent — has been volatile but analysts remain broadly bullish. The Goldman Sachs CEO called recent software stock selling overdone, suggesting tech may have more room to run. SHOP's next earnings date will be a major catalyst.
→ cnbc.com — Nasdaq win streak April 15While energy surged, Financials (-9.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-8.6%), and Technology (-7.6%) were Q1's worst S&P 500 sectors. Investors who trimmed those heading into the year may now be looking at re-entry. The S&P 500 has recovered fully from its Iran war losses and is now at all-time highs — meaning any position you add from here is made at record prices. That isn't a reason not to invest, but it's a reason to be deliberate.
→ communityamerica.com — Q1 sector breakdownThe TSX is heavily weighted toward Financials and Energy (combined ~47% of the index). If you hold XIC or XIU, you are already significantly exposed to both. That concentration has paid off in 2026 so far, but it also means a sustained oil price drop or a bad Canadian bank earnings season hits your Canadian ETF harder than you might expect. Diversifying internationally — even a small allocation to VFV or XEF — has historically smoothed out those bumps.
The iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI Index ETF (XEF), which tracks international developed markets outside North America, was the top performer among Canada's 10 largest ETFs in the most recent month, gaining 4.19%. Meanwhile, XIU — Canada's flagship TSX 60 ETF — lost 0.21% in the same period. This is a notable divergence and a reminder that international diversification has been earning its keep in 2026. For Canadian investors who are TSX-heavy, XEF deserves a look.
TFSA ✓ — XEF is eligible for TFSA and RRSP. Note: international ETFs held in RRSP may benefit from reduced withholding taxes on dividends depending on the country. → morningstar.com — Largest Canadian ETF performanceXIC, the iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite ETF, has grown to $27.98B in assets under management, making it one of the largest Canadian ETFs by size. Its MER is just 0.06%, and it provides exposure to the full breadth of the TSX including small and mid-cap names that XIU (which only tracks the TSX 60) misses. Its 52-week high is $54.96 and 52-week low is $37.13 — a wide range that reflects the Iran war volatility of 2026.
TFSA ✓ RRSP ✓ — XIC is a strong core holding in both registered accounts. No withholding tax concerns for this Canadian-listed, Canadian-equity ETF. → wealthawesome.com — XIC profileVFV gives Canadians unhedged exposure to the S&P 500 in Canadian dollars. When the CAD weakens (as it has in 2026 — down from 0.74 to 0.728 vs USD), your VFV returns get a boost from currency alone — you're buying US equities "cheaper" in Canadian terms. However, if the CAD recovers strongly (e.g. on a peace deal or rate parity), that tailwind reverses. Hedged alternatives like XSP eliminate this variable, at the cost of some complexity.
RRSP ✓ — VFV held in an RRSP is exempt from the 15% US dividend withholding tax that applies to US ETFs in TFSAs. Consider this if you hold US-listed ETFs. → piggybank.ca — XIC vs VFV comparisonStarting in 2026, new Total Cost Reporting (TCR) regulations require Canadian brokerages to show your total Fund Expense Ratio (MER + TER) in dollar terms on your annual statements. You'll start seeing the first reports covering 2026 when statements arrive in early 2027. This is a meaningful change — for the first time, investors will see exactly how much in dollar fees they paid, not just a percentage. If you've never audited your MER, now is a good time to start.
→ wealthradiant.com — 2026 TCR rules explainedIf your Canadian portfolio is mostly XIU and XIC, you've done fine — but this week's data is a nudge to check if you have any international exposure at all. XEF outperformed XIU significantly last month. A simple three-fund setup (XIC + VFV + XEF or a global bond ETF) covers most of what a long-term Canadian retail investor needs, at extremely low cost. The new 2026 fee reporting rules will also, for the first time, show the full cost picture in plain dollars — worth reviewing when those statements arrive.
Shopify (SHOP / SHOP.TO) was among the top TSX movers this week following the Carney majority news. Analysts at TipRanks flagged bullishness on SHOP this week, continuing a trend of positive coverage. For context: Shopify's last earnings report showed Q2 2025 revenue of US$2.7B, up 31% YoY, and its market cap briefly surpassed RBC to become Canada's most valuable public company. Shopify's next earnings call will be a major event — dates TBD but typically early May.
→ cnbc.com — Shopify news and quoteCanadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO), one of the TSX's largest energy constituents, gained 0.92% on Thursday even as the Iran ceasefire took hold — suggesting markets haven't fully priced in a peace outcome for oil prices. CNQ is a fundamentally strong business, but its near-term direction is highly correlated with WTI. With the ceasefire expiring April 21, this name is a watch, not a chase.
→ tradingeconomics.com — TSX energy stocksA New York federal jury ruled that Live Nation Entertainment (which owns Ticketmaster) holds an illegal monopoly over the concert ticketing market. Shares dropped more than 3% on the verdict. 34 states were parties to the suit. This is a notable antitrust moment in a tech-adjacent sector — worth watching if you hold LYV or any entertainment/platform stocks, as regulatory risk is now material and sentencing could result in a breakup of the business.
→ cnbc.com — Live Nation monopoly rulingShopify remains Canada's most important tech stock for retail investors to understand, even if you don't own it directly — it's a major XIC weight and signals a lot about global e-commerce sentiment. CNQ is a case where geopolitics, not fundamentals, are running the price right now. If you hold it for dividends and long-term energy exposure, that thesis hasn't changed. If you bought it as a Iran-war trade, be clear with yourself about what your exit looks like if the peace deal holds.
Gold continued its historic run this week, reaching US$4,860/oz on April 17 after briefly hitting $4,878 earlier in the week. The year-over-year gain of 41.6% is extraordinary. For Canadian investors, the story is even better: the CAD has weakened against the USD this year, which means gold's USD gains translate to even larger CAD returns. Analysts point to central bank buying, the weak US dollar (DXY near 4-week lows), and geopolitical uncertainty as the structural drivers. Forecasts suggest $4,900–$5,400 is possible by year-end.
TFSA ✓ RRSP ✓ — Gold ETFs like CGL.C or ZGD are eligible for all registered accounts and provide exposure without physical storage. Consider as 5–10% of a balanced portfolio. → tradingeconomics.com — Gold price April 17, 2026With the BoC holding at 2.25%, GIC rates have stabilized but are not expected to rise further. The best 1-year GIC in Canada is currently 3.60% (Achieva Financial), while 5-year rates top out at 3.85%. The era of 5% GICs is over. Experts suggest that if you want guaranteed, risk-free returns in a TFSA or RRSP, locking in a 3.5%+ rate now makes more sense than waiting for rates that are unlikely to climb. GICs are CDIC-insured up to $100,000.
TFSA ✓ RRSP ✓ — GIC interest is fully taxable in a non-registered account but grows tax-free or tax-deferred in TFSA/RRSP. Prioritize registered accounts for GIC holdings. → ratehub.ca — Best GIC rates April 2026While gold's USD performance has been exceptional, the CAD-denominated return has been even larger due to loonie weakness. In October 2024, gold was trading at roughly CAD $3,701/oz. By October 2025 it was at CAD $5,671/oz — a 53% gain. CAD-priced gold continues to benefit from the dual tailwind of rising USD gold prices and a weakening Canadian dollar. This is particularly relevant for investors using Canadian gold ETFs which price in CAD.
→ fortune.com — Gold price analysis April 2026Real estate finished Q1 2026 as one of the TSX's modest positive sectors (+1.87%), recovering some ground from the rate-driven losses of recent years. Canadian REITs are sensitive to interest rate expectations — with the BoC holding steady and cuts not expected imminently, the REIT recovery remains gradual. If you're a dividend-focused investor looking for income, Canadian REITs offer yields in the 4–7% range, but interest rate risk remains a consideration.
NON-REG NOTE — REIT distributions are often treated as other income (not eligible dividends), making them less tax-efficient in non-registered accounts. Consider holding REITs inside a TFSA or RRSP where possible. → communityamerica.com — Q1 sector dataIf you're sitting on cash in a TFSA or RRSP that isn't working, the current GIC window of 3.5–3.85% is genuinely attractive for a guaranteed return — especially if you're risk-averse or close to a near-term goal like a home purchase or planned withdrawal. Gold continues to be one of the year's most compelling stories, though at $4,860/oz the easy gains may already be in. A 5–10% allocation to a gold ETF as portfolio insurance is a reasonable consideration for a balanced, long-term portfolio.
The Canadian dollar traded at approximately 0.728 USD on April 17 — up slightly from the April 3 low of 0.717 (the weakest point of 2026), but still meaningfully below the January high of 0.741. The recovery this week was driven by USD weakness: the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell toward a 4-week low, as Iran ceasefire optimism reduced safe-haven demand for the USD. For Canadians holding US-listed stocks or ETFs like VFV, QQQ, or SPY, a weak CAD is a tailwind on the way up — but means more conversion cost when you sell or reinvest dividends.
→ tradingeconomics.com — CAD/USD April 2026The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to approximately 98 this week, near a 4-week low, as Iran ceasefire news reduced geopolitical risk premium in the USD. A weaker USD is generally good for commodity prices (oil, gold), for emerging markets, and for Canadians holding USD assets (since those assets are worth more in CAD on conversion). It also means Canadian manufacturing exports become slightly more competitive in USD terms.
→ tradingeconomics.com — Currency commentary April 2026The Iran ceasefire didn't just move North American markets — Asian and European benchmarks surged in parallel, with the relief rally described as "synchronized" across regions. The Strait of Hormuz blockade had been particularly disruptive for Asian economies dependent on Gulf oil imports. A partial reopening of the strait benefits global shipping and manufacturing supply chains, which has positive downstream effects on Canadian resource exporters whose products feed Asian industrial demand.
→ npr.org — Global market reaction to ceasefireNorbert's Gambit is a technique that lets investors convert CAD to USD (and vice versa) at near-wholesale rates — avoiding the typical 1.5% currency conversion fee. Questrade already offers it. Wealthsimple has announced it's coming to their platform in 2026. For Canadian investors who regularly buy US-listed stocks or ETFs, this could save hundreds of dollars annually. If you're on Wealthsimple and regularly purchasing VFV, QQQ, or US stocks, watch for this feature rollout.
→ milesopedia.com — Norbert's Gambit coming to WealthsimpleThe current CAD at ~0.728 is meaningful context for any decision to buy US-listed assets. You're getting US stocks at a ~27% premium in Canadian terms relative to par — that's significant. It's not a reason to avoid US equities (they've dramatically outperformed over any long period), but it's a reason to be aware. If the CAD strengthens significantly over the next year — say, back to 0.75+ on a peace deal or BoC/Fed rate convergence — any USD holdings you sell will return fewer Canadian dollars than you might expect.
Questrade launched Questrade Pro, a new browser-based advanced trading platform with 1-second candles, professional-grade charting, and built-in AI analysis tools. Alongside this, Questrade announced "Quest Metals" — fractional physical gold purchases starting from $5, stored at the Royal Canadian Mint. Private equity, private credit, and pre-IPO access are also coming through 2026. This represents a major step up from a simple commission-free brokerage toward a full-featured platform. The Pro rollout began via a waiting list and is expanding in 2026.
→ financemagnates.com — Questrade Pro launchWealthsimple is building an AI research dashboard that will let investors screen stocks using natural language queries, get market-driver summaries, and detect patterns in their holdings. This is on top of existing improvements to their Active Trader experience. Wealthsimple manages $100B AUD (vs Questrade's $85B), and these AI tools are aimed squarely at the engaged self-directed investor who wants more than a buy/sell button.
→ fathom4sight.ai — Wealthsimple vs Questrade 2026Following Questrade's move to commission-free trading in early 2025, Qtrade Direct Investing also eliminated trading commissions. As of 2026, every major Canadian self-directed brokerage — Wealthsimple, Questrade, and Qtrade — offers $0 commission trades on stocks and ETFs. This shifts the comparison from "who's cheapest" to "who gives the best platform experience, research tools, and USD workflow." Questrade wins on USD; Wealthsimple wins on simplicity and banking integration.
→ stockbrokers.com — Canadian brokerage comparison 2026Under new 2026 TCR regulations, your annual investment statements will now include the Fund Expense Ratio (MER + TER) expressed in actual dollar terms, not just as a percentage. If you hold mutual funds or actively managed ETFs, you'll see for the first time exactly how much you paid in fees last year. For self-directed investors holding low-cost index ETFs, this change will confirm what they already know. For anyone still holding higher-fee products, it may be a wake-up call worth acting on.
→ wealthradiant.com — TCR rules 2026The Canadian brokerage race is now genuinely competitive, which is good for you. If you're on Wealthsimple and mostly buying Canadian ETFs in CAD, you're well served. If you regularly buy US stocks or ETFs, Questrade's existing Norbert's Gambit support likely saves you more money than any other single decision you can make. Questrade's Pro platform and physical gold access are new features worth exploring if you want more than the basics. The new fee transparency rules arriving in 2026 statements are worth reviewing with fresh eyes — especially if you have older, higher-cost products you haven't revisited in years.
Warren Buffett retired as Berkshire Hathaway CEO on January 1, 2026 — remaining as chairman — with Greg Abel now running the company day-to-day. Berkshire holds a record $373B cash pile and a ~$274B equity portfolio. Abel has resumed share buybacks and made Berkshire's first major overseas equity investment of the year (Tokio Marine, a Japanese insurer). The Q1 2026 13F filing, due mid-May, will be closely watched for Abel's first independent capital deployment signals. Berkshire's top holdings remain Apple, American Express, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron.
→ ibtimes.com.au — Berkshire 2026 portfolio movesBased on the most recent 13F filing (covering Q4 2025), Berkshire increased exposure to Chubb (insurance) and Domino's Pizza, while exiting Liberty Media tracking stocks (converted to Sirius XM shares) and selectively trimming certain financial and technology names. The overall posture: disciplined, conservative, large-moat businesses with pricing power and strong balance sheets. Abel's first original move was a Japanese insurance stake — suggesting international diversification is now on the table.
→ acquirersmultiple.com — Berkshire portfolio updateCPP Investments, OMERS, and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan are among the world's largest institutional investors. While specific April 2026 transactions weren't disclosed this week, the broad trend from their 2026 positioning has been: continued rotation into infrastructure, private credit, and global real assets. These pension funds are also significant holders of Canadian financial stocks and global infrastructure — sectors that benefit from the current stable-rate environment.
→ rbc.com — Canadian economic outlook 2026The Q1 2026 13F filing — covering January through March 2026 — will be the first to fully reflect Greg Abel's independent investment decisions as Berkshire's new CEO. Analysts and retail investors worldwide will parse it for signals about whether Abel continues Buffett's playbook or begins establishing his own. Sectors to watch: whether energy exposure was added (consistent with Abel's background in energy), whether cash deployment accelerated, and any new positions initiated.
→ ibtimes.com.au — Berkshire 2026 capital allocationYou can't replicate Berkshire or CPP's access to private deals and insider relationships, and you shouldn't try. But there's something useful in what they signal directionally: a preference for durable, cash-generating businesses with pricing power over speculative growth, and a clear move toward international diversification and infrastructure. Those aren't bad signals for a retail investor building a long-term, balanced portfolio. Berkshire's 13F in May is worth reading not to copy their trades, but to understand the reasoning behind the positioning of one of history's most disciplined capital allocators — now under new management.
The two-week US-Iran ceasefire expires on Tuesday April 21. Brent crude was already back near $99 before the week began, signalling that markets haven't priced a clean peace outcome. If the ceasefire collapses, expect oil prices to spike, energy stocks to rally, and broad market volatility to return. If a deal extends or formalizes, energy stocks may give back gains and the relief rally could continue. Monitor WTI crude prices Monday and Tuesday as the leading indicator.
→ cnbc.com — Ceasefire expiry and oil outlookThe Bank of Canada's next rate decision on April 29 comes with a full Monetary Policy Report — the first major economic forecast update since the Iran ceasefire and the Carney majority. Rates are almost universally expected to hold at 2.25%, but the language in the MPR will signal how the BoC is reading the trade environment, inflation trajectory, and any impact from geopolitical stabilization. This will shape GIC rates, mortgage outlooks, and CAD direction for the next 6–8 weeks.
→ bankofcanada.ca — April 29 rate decisionThe coming week brings earnings from Waste Connections and Fairfax Financial on the TSX side — two names being closely watched to gauge how Canadian companies are managing the headwinds from elevated oil prices and global uncertainty. On the US side, earnings season continues with major tech and consumer names reporting. Any miss from a large tech company could dent the Nasdaq's 12-session win streak and pull SHOP and other Canadian tech-adjacent names lower in sympathy.
→ tradingeconomics.com — TSX earnings calendar