The S&P 500 broke 7,000 on ceasefire optimism. Then, before Monday's open, the USS Spruance fired on and seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman, Iran vowed to retaliate, and the Strait of Hormuz closed again. This issue reflects what is confirmed, not what markets have yet to price.
The ceasefire appeared broken before Monday's open. The USS Spruance fired on and seized the Iranian cargo ship Touska in the Gulf of Oman. Iran's military command called it piracy and vowed to respond. The Strait re-closed. S&P 500 futures are down approximately 0.6% and the VIX climbed back above 20 before the open. Oil is up approximately 7% to the $90–91 range, putting Scenario C conditions in play at the open. Energy names are positioned to partially recover from Friday's losses; how far that extends depends on whether diplomatic movement emerges in Pakistan before Tuesday.
StatCan releases March 2026 CPI at 8:30 AM ET today. March CPI captures the first full month of the Iran war's impact on Canadian gasoline and freight prices. It does not reflect Sunday's fresh re-escalation, which occurred after the reference period. The print will inform the tone of the Bank of Canada's April 29 decision and MPR.
Gold is pulling back to spot near $4,793 before the open: a USD safe-haven bid, not a structural shift. The five independent indicators behind the Conviction Signal have not changed. Central banks are not selling; the USD is bid on risk-off, and that temporarily competes with gold as a safe haven. The pullback from Friday's $4,868 close, per Reuters spot pricing, does not undermine the structural case laid out in Section 05.
The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% at the March 18 meeting, per its published press release. The next decision is April 29 at 9:45 AM ET, with the full Monetary Policy Report released simultaneously. That MPR will be the BoC's first published projection set to account for the Iran conflict's effect on Canadian inflation and growth. National Bank Financial's economics team, cited in Globe and Mail reporting, expects the rate to stay at 2.25% through 2026. The April 29 press conference at approximately 10:30 AM ET will shape how markets read the path from here.
→ BoC Rate Decision, March 18, 2026Statistics Canada's February 2026 CPI came in at 1.8% year-over-year (Table 18-10-0004-01), below the 1.9% consensus, with the BoC's preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures also softening. March CPI, released this morning, covers the period when Iranian supply disruptions first pushed Canadian gasoline prices higher. That is what March can tell you. It cannot reflect Sunday's Touska seizure or the Strait re-closure, which occurred after the reference period closed. Watch CPI-trim and CPI-median alongside the headline. A March print above the BoC's working range would add weight to the hold case at April 29, but the April and May reads will matter at least as much.
→ StatCan February CPI Release · Table 18-10-0004-01The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook, published April 14, cut global GDP growth to 3.1% from the January forecast of 3.3%, citing the US-Iran war's energy and supply shock. Global inflation was revised up to 4.4%. The report stated that "a longer or broader conflict could significantly weaken growth and destabilize financial markets." Iran's economy was revised to contract 6.1% in 2026. Canada's outlook was not separately downgraded in the report's country tables, but as a commodity-linked open economy, the indirect exposure runs through oil prices, trade finance, and the CAD/USD rate. The IMF report predates Sunday's events.
→ IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026US producer prices for March came in below consensus on April 14, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics release. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate in the 3.50–3.75% range. CME FedWatch pricing ahead of Sunday's events showed near-certainty for no change at the May meeting. Both the Fed and the BoC face the same structural problem: an energy shock that is supply-driven rather than demand-driven. Standard monetary tools are blunt instruments against oil prices set in a strait. The Fed's Beige Book, released April 16, noted rising input costs in freight and logistics, which the March PPI print alone does not fully capture.
→ Bureau of Labor Statistics · PPIRead this morning's March CPI print against what it can and cannot tell you. It captures the war's first wave of energy pressure on Canadian prices. It does not capture Sunday's re-escalation. If the headline comes in above 2.5%, that adds weight to the hold case at April 29, but the BoC's forward language in the MPR will matter more than any single number. Read the April 29 press release and the MPR risk scenarios closely. The BoC's characterization of the oil shock, transitory or embedded, will set the rate path for the rest of 2026.
On Friday April 17, Canadian energy names fell sharply when Iran's Foreign Minister confirmed Hormuz was open to commercial traffic. CNQ fell 7.28%, SU dropped 4%, CVE shed 5.4%, WCP declined 4.16%. That move made sense given what was known at Friday's close. By Saturday the IRGC had re-imposed transit restrictions. By Sunday the USS Spruance had fired on the Touska. The condition that drove Friday's energy selloff, a durable Strait reopening, no longer appears to hold. The direction this resolves depends on whether Monday's diplomatic track makes progress or not.
Before Monday's open: WTI crude was up approximately 7% to the $90–91 range. The $90 watch level in the risk map below has been breached to the upside. Scenario C conditions are now in play at the open.
Scenario A: US-Iran talks resume and produce a ceasefire extension. Oil falls back, energy names stay under pressure. Friday's losses hold. XEG underperforms. Scenario B: Talks stall but no further naval incidents occur. Oil trades sideways around current levels. Energy names stabilize. Scenario C: Further confrontation in the Strait, additional vessel seizures, or Iranian military action. Oil spikes further. Canadian energy names recover sharply from Friday's losses. XEG leads the TSX. Before Monday's open, WTI crude was already up approximately 7% to the $90–91 range, which puts early Scenario C conditions in play. Iran's foreign ministry has not confirmed attendance at Pakistan talks, and the ceasefire expires Wednesday. Scenario A requires a confirmation that has not yet come. ◆ NOTABLE MOVE · CNQ · SU · CVE · ENB
Gold did not follow oil down on Friday when the Strait appeared to open. That tells you the two assets are pricing different things. Oil was pricing the specific conflict. Gold was pricing something broader: USD weakness, central bank reserve accumulation, and structural geopolitical uncertainty. Agnico Eagle gained more than 2% Friday. Wheaton Precious Metals advanced over 5%. Barrick Gold rose more than 1%. None of the conditions driving gold retreated on Friday's ceasefire optimism, and Sunday's events have not changed them either.
→ State Street Gold Monitor, April 2026The chain of logic on Friday: lower oil means lower near-term inflation, which gives the BoC more room to eventually cut, which supports bank margin expectations. BMO gained 1.65% Friday, Scotiabank 2.03%, RBC 1.35%, TD 1.23%. If Sunday's events push oil back up, that chain reverses. The broader thesis that Canadian banks are well-capitalized heading into this uncertainty period remains intact regardless of which way oil resolves this week. But the Friday gains were built on a specific macro scenario that needs to be tested against this morning's March CPI print and Monday's oil open.
Technology and growth led the S&P 500's 4.5% weekly gain and the Nasdaq's 7% surge through Friday. The Nasdaq posted an 11-session win streak. Most of this played out in US-listed instruments. The TSX's tech sector is smaller, but Shopify's 8.3% gain on April 15 was a meaningful data point for Canadian investors with SHOP exposure. The week's technology thesis will be tested when Alphabet reports on April 29 after market close. That result is the clearest signal on whether AI capex is generating the revenue acceleration the market has priced in.
Utilities and REITs are most sensitive to Government of Canada bond yield movements, which in turn track inflation expectations and the BoC's rate path. Both sectors held steady last week as the broader market moved. The 5-year GoC yield, which drives most residential mortgage refinancing and commercial real estate financing, is a more relevant anchor for these sectors than the overnight rate. A hot CPI print this morning will push the 5-year GoC yield higher, which compresses REIT valuations. A soft print supports them. No sector-specific earnings or regulatory announcements are expected this week.
Energy is the variable this week. Before Monday's open, WTI was already up approximately 7% to the $90–91 range on Sunday's re-escalation. That means the scenario map has shifted: Scenario C conditions are in play at the open, and pre-open conditions point to a partial reversal of the Friday energy losses in CNQ, SU, and CVE. For investors with direct energy positions, the Friday move reflected a premise: the Strait had reopened permanently. That premise did not survive the weekend. For investors in XIC or XIU, the energy sector's roughly 18% weight means this recovery matters for total return this week. For XGD holders, the conditions driving gold remain intact even as gold pulls back modestly on a USD safe-haven bid.
VFV (Vanguard S&P 500 Index ETF) is denominated in Canadian dollars but does not hedge the USD/CAD currency exposure. Investors holding VFV last week received the S&P 500's approximately 4.5% gain, minus the drag from the loonie's roughly 1.5% recovery against the USD. Investors who wanted CAD-hedged S&P 500 exposure have used products like ZUE (BMO S&P 500 Hedged to CAD Index ETF) or XSP (iShares Core S&P 500 Index ETF CAD-Hedged). Hedged vehicles strip out the currency movement in both directions. Which approach is better depends on your view of CAD/USD and your time horizon, not on this week's result alone.
XIC (iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Composite ETF) and XIU (iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF) both extended gains through a fourth consecutive positive week. Energy stocks, roughly 18% of XIC, dragged on Friday while gold miners and banks added. Investors holding XIC as a core position were buffered across this rotation because the index held. How Monday opens will depend on how the market prices Sunday's Touska seizure and what March CPI prints at 8:30 AM ET. Both are pre-open data points.
→ iShares XIC Fund PageXGD was the week's sector leader on the TSX. Per the BlackRock fund fact sheet, the ETF holds 51 gold stocks globally, with Canadian firms representing the largest geographic weight. Its top holdings are the same names that moved on Friday: Agnico Eagle up more than 2%, Wheaton Precious Metals up more than 5%, Barrick Gold up more than 1%. For investors wanting gold miner exposure without single-stock concentration risk, XGD is the standard TSX vehicle. Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS.U) provides physical gold exposure for investors who want the commodity without operating risk.
→ BlackRock · XGD Fund PageXGD and PHYS.U are eligible for TFSA and RRSP accounts. Gold miner capital gains inside a TFSA are tax-free. The sector is up roughly 40% year-over-year as of April 17.
XEG's largest positions, CNQ, SU, CVE, and ENB, all fell sharply on Friday when the Strait appeared open and oil's risk premium exited. Per the iShares fund fact sheet, CNQ is among the top weights, which made its 7.28% drop the dominant driver of XEG's Friday session. As of Sunday night, the thesis that the Strait had reopened permanently is unverified. Whether XEG recovers on Monday depends on how oil trades at the open and what diplomatic signalling emerges before markets open.
→ BlackRock · XEG Fund PageIf you hold US equity exposure through VFV, check whether you need CAD hedging. VFV is unhedged. When the loonie strengthens, your USD-denominated gains shrink in CAD terms. ZUE and XSP hedge that. If you are a long-term index investor holding XIC or VGRO, last week's four-week gain streak is the signal that matters, not any single sector's daily move. The ETF structure does the rotation for you.
Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP / TSX: SHOP) gained 8.3% on April 15 after the company published a blog post announcing an AI Toolkit giving agents direct access to merchant store backends. Per Shopify's investor relations page, Q4 2025 revenue was $3.7 billion, up 31% year-over-year. Q1 2026 results have not yet been scheduled per the IR calendar as of this writing. Oppenheimer's Outperform and $200 target was reiterated the same week, modelling roughly 27% revenue growth in 2026, per broker research. The stock has a 52-week range of $80.35 to $182.19. The April 15 close of $127.41 reflects significant recovery from the war-period lows but is not near the prior high. ◆ WATCH
→ Shopify Investor RelationsAgnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) gained more than 2% Friday as gold held while oil sold off. Agnico's investor relations page notes the company has provided advance notice of its Q1 2026 results release and related conference call; investors should check the IR calendar for the confirmed date. Per Agnico's 2025 annual report, the company sold 3.4 million ounces of gold in 2025 and holds approximately 15 years of gold reserves. Its four cornerstone operations, Detour Lake, Canadian Malartic, Meadowbank, and Meliadine, are all in Canada. With gold trading above US$4,800, Agnico's operating cost structure gives it leverage to the metal price at current levels. ◆ NOTABLE MOVE
→ Agnico Eagle Investor RelationsWaste Connections (TSX/NYSE: WCN) will report Q1 2026 financial results after the market closes on April 22, 2026. The company will host an investor conference call on April 23 at 8:30 AM ET. Per the company's March 25, 2026 IR press release, dial-in information is available through preregistration at investors.wasteconnections.com. WCN serves approximately nine million customers across 46 US states and six Canadian provinces. Fuel is a significant operating cost. The Q1 period captured the war's first wave of energy price pressure. Margin commentary and the 2026 outlook guidance will be the two things to watch on the call. WCN reported $9.9–$9.95 billion in revenue guidance for full-year 2026 in its February results. ◆ WATCH
→ Waste Connections IR · Q1 2026 Earnings AnnouncementWaste Connections is the most immediately actionable of the three names this week. Results Wednesday after close, call Thursday morning. The question is whether fuel-cost inflation cut into margins in Q1 and whether management revises its 2026 revenue guidance of $9.9–$9.95 billion. Shopify's move on April 15 is interesting but the Q1 results are not yet scheduled. For Agnico, confirm the Q1 results date on the IR page before making any positioning decisions around the report.
Gold Spot Near $4,793 Before the Open on a USD Safe-Haven Bid. The Five Structural Pillars Are Unchanged.
Gold's Friday close was $4,868. Before Monday's open, spot gold was trading near $4,793, per Reuters, down approximately 1.5% from Friday's close. The pullback reflects a USD safe-haven bid, not a structural shift. When geopolitical risk flares sharply, both USD and gold can bid simultaneously, with USD often winning the short-term safe-haven trade. The five pillars that drove the Conviction Signal are all intact. One: the broad U.S. dollar has weakened, per FRED's nominal broad U.S. dollar index (DTWEXBGS). Two: central bank gold buying is structural, not tactical. China's official reserves reached 2,309 tonnes as of February 2026 per the World Gold Council, with Malaysia and South Korea also resuming accumulation. Three: real rates remain negative or barely positive, removing the traditional opportunity cost argument against gold. Four: the unresolved Strait situation, with the ceasefire expiring Wednesday and Iran not yet confirming Pakistan talks, is exactly the tail risk gold prices. Five: State Street's April 2026 Gold Monitor shows Chinese gold ETF inflows of US$8.1 billion year-to-date, creating a demand floor that Western ETF outflows have not overcome. For Canadian investors, XGD provides miner leverage through a registered account. PHYS.U provides direct physical exposure without the operating risk of individual miners.
→ State Street Gold Monitor, April 2026This is not a recommendation. Do your own research before acting.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell approximately 4.9 basis points on April 14 to 4.248%, per FRED series DGS10, as ceasefire optimism reduced the inflation risk premium in longer-dated bonds. Government of Canada yields moved in sympathy. The 5-year GoC yield, which most directly drives 5-year fixed mortgage rates and commercial real estate financing, is the rate to watch this week. A hot March CPI print this morning will put upward pressure on the 5-year GoC yield. A soft print supports it. The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is less directly relevant to these instruments than the bond market's own inflation pricing.
→ FRED · 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity RatePer publicly available rate sheets from the Big Six banks, the 5-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 3.69%, a significant decline from the late-2023 peak near 5.50%. Short-duration GICs from the Big Six and credit unions are still generating real returns above the BoC's 2% target given February's 1.8% CPI read. That changes if today's March print spikes. The BoC's next rate announcement on April 29 is the next formal policy input. RRSP-eligible GICs from Schedule I banks remain the lowest-risk income option for conservative registered account allocations. Interest income inside a TFSA is tax-free; inside a non-registered account it is taxed at marginal rates.
For investors comparing GICs and bond ETFs in a registered account, the TFSA is the preferred home for GIC holdings in higher tax brackets. All income is sheltered regardless of source.
Silver's Friday gain of roughly 4.74% outpaced gold's move as ceasefire optimism returned some industrial-demand assumptions to the metal. The gold/silver ratio falling to approximately 59.0 means it takes 59 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Historically, when the ratio compresses below 60, silver is outperforming on relative terms. Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM) is the most liquid Canadian-listed silver streaming name and advanced more than 5% on Friday. For investors who want broader metals exposure, BMO Global Metals ETF (ZMT) covers gold, silver, and copper in a single Canadian-listed vehicle.
→ LBMA Precious Metal PricesCanadian REITs are sensitive to Government of Canada bond yields through their financing costs and their spread to the risk-free rate. Both catalysts for sector re-pricing this week are on the calendar: March CPI at 8:30 AM ET today, and the BoC's MPR on April 29. A CPI print that pushes GoC yields higher compresses REIT valuations. A softer print supports them. Industrial and logistics REITs carry additional exposure to supply chain disruption from the Strait situation. No major Canadian REIT earnings are scheduled this week specifically.
The Conviction Signal on gold rests on five distinct inputs, not a single narrative. The gold/oil divergence on Friday, where gold held while oil fell sharply, is the clearest evidence that the two assets are not tracking the same variable. If you want gold exposure inside a registered account, XGD captures miner leverage and PHYS.U captures the commodity directly. Neither requires a view on whether the ceasefire holds.
The Canadian dollar strengthened from approximately $0.718 on April 13 to $0.732 at Friday's close, per the Bank of Canada noon rate series (DEXCAUS on FRED). For Canadian investors holding unhedged US equity positions through VFV, ZSP, XUS, or individual US-listed stocks, the loonie's recovery reduced the CAD-equivalent gain from the S&P 500's roughly 4.5% weekly gain by approximately 1.5 percentage points. That is a real cost. It does not show in the index return; it shows when you convert back to Canadian dollars. Hedged vehicles like ZUE or XSP captured the pure index move without the currency drag. Neither approach is categorically better over time. The choice depends on your view of where CAD/USD goes from here, which is uncertain.
→ Bank of Canada · Noon and Closing Exchange RatesThe broad U.S. dollar weakened, per FRED series DTWEXBGS. The immediate driver was reduced safe-haven demand as ceasefire optimism grew. A secondary driver appears to be longer-run concern about US fiscal sustainability. Statistics Canada reported that Canadian Manufacturing Sales grew 3.6% in February and Wholesale Sales rose 2%, data that supported the loonie independent of commodity prices. Sunday's events may reverse some of the USD safe-haven retreat, which could push the loonie back from Friday's close. That would benefit unhedged US equity holders in CAD terms.
European equity markets gained through Friday as the ceasefire reduced the energy import burden on European industrial economies. Germany's DAX gained 2.27%, France's CAC rose 1.97%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 2.10%. For Canadian investors with XEF (iShares MSCI EAFE ETF) or with international equity allocations through VGRO, the European portion of last week's return was positive. Europe carries more structural exposure to Middle Eastern energy supply than North America, so ceasefire news was proportionally more significant there. Sunday's re-escalation is likely to weigh on European equity futures at Monday's open.
Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Monday as the Touska seizure and Strait re-closure hit risk appetite overnight. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.72%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.71%, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.73%, and Australia's ASX 200 dropped 0.38%. Mainland China's CSI300 was roughly flat. Japan remains the G7's most exposed economy to Middle Eastern energy supply disruption, with near-total oil import dependence. For Canadian investors, the Asia weighting in VGRO and XEF contributed to last week's portfolio gains; Monday's Asian session reverses a portion of that. The IMF cut China's growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% in its April 2026 WEO, consistent with China's relative insulation through domestic EV adoption and discounted oil access.
→ CNBC · Asia Markets, Monday April 20, 2026If you hold US equities without CAD hedging, the loonie's recovery from its April 13 lows cost you approximately 1.5 percentage points of return last week. That is the practical answer to why your US holdings may have underperformed the S&P 500's reported gain. The hedged/unhedged choice is worth reviewing periodically, especially when CAD/USD is moving. Sunday's events could bring some USD strength back, which would work in the other direction for unhedged holders this week.
Questrade received an Order of Commencement and Carrying on of Business from the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) on November 3, 2025, authorizing Questbank to operate as a Schedule I bank under the Bank Act. The approval followed Questrade's incorporation via federal letters patent published in the Canada Gazette on March 29, 2025. That is the final step in the federal banking licensing process. The licence was six years in the making: Questrade first applied in 2019. Per CBC News reporting on November 3, 2025, first products are expected to be announced in 2026, though no launch date has been confirmed. Questrade currently manages approximately $85 billion in assets under administration. If Questbank delivers deposit accounts and lending products, investors could consolidate brokerage and banking at a single federally regulated institution.
→ CBC News · Questbank OSFI Approval, November 3, 2025Questrade announced Questrade Pro at its November 2025 product showcase, describing a browser-based platform with one-second candle charts, advanced visualization, and AI-driven analysis tools. Per the Questrade Pro product page as of this writing, interested users can join a waitlist. The page states: "You'll be the first to hear the latest on Pro, including its launch date." Beta access began rolling out to waitlist registrants in early December 2025, per GlobeNewswire. The platform has not had a confirmed general availability launch date. Questrade has also indicated additional features, including custom indexing and private markets access, are planned for 2026.
→ Questrade Pro Product PageWealthsimple published Help Centre documentation on Norbert's Gambit, the currency conversion technique that lets investors convert CAD to USD at near-market rates by buying and journaling a dual-listed ETF. The company's active trading product page listed the feature as "coming early 2026" in recent checks. Whether full rollout has occurred for all account types is not confirmed by Wealthsimple's public communications as of this writing. Questrade has supported Norbert's Gambit for years, making it a standard feature for cost-conscious investors who trade US securities. If Wealthsimple's rollout reaches all account types, it would close a meaningful FX cost gap between the two platforms.
→ Wealthsimple Help CentreOn April 2, 2026, the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and CIRO issued a joint public statement clarifying the rules governing prediction markets in Canada. Per the CIRO notice, only two CIRO dealer members have been authorized to facilitate Canadian client access to event contracts, under specific terms and conditions set in consultation with CSA members. CIRO's bulletin, published March 26, 2026, limits eligible products to economic forecasts, environmental forecasts, or financial indicators, with a minimum 30-day resolution term. No prediction market has been recognized as an exchange or registered as a dealer in Canada. Wealthsimple received authorization as one of the eligible CIRO members in late March 2026. The Globe and Mail reported the development on April 2; a University of Calgary finance professor wrote a commentary questioning the consistency of the regulatory approach. The CIRO/CSA notice is the controlling regulatory document.
→ CIRO/CSA · Prediction Markets Notice, April 2, 2026The most practically important platform development for Canadian investors who trade US equities is Norbert's Gambit availability at Wealthsimple. If you are currently paying the platform's default FX spread on USD purchases, check the Help Centre for your account type. Questrade Pro is in beta and on a waitlist; if you are on that list you may already have access. Questbank's banking licence is real but is not yet a product you can use. None of these are urgent actions this week.
Per FactSet's Earnings Insight for April 2026, S&P 500 companies reporting so far show year-over-year earnings growth of 13.2%, which would be the sixth consecutive quarter above 10%. The "Magnificent 7" companies are expected to deliver 22.8% earnings growth for the quarter, with Nvidia as the largest contributor. The blended earnings growth rate for the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies is 10.1%. The question this season is whether guidance cuts tied to the Iran war's energy cost pressure begin to erode the 18% full-year 2026 consensus estimate. That signal will come most clearly from industrials, transportation, and consumer-facing companies reporting over the next three weeks.
→ FactSet Earnings Insight, April 2026Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) confirmed its Q1 2026 results call for Wednesday, April 29, at 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET, per the company's April 7, 2026 IR announcement. Q4 2025 showed Google Cloud revenue growing 48% year-over-year. Alphabet guided to $175–$185 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, more than double its 2025 spend, as AI infrastructure investment accelerates. The cloud growth rate and whether AI advertising revenue is accelerating alongside infrastructure spending are the two metrics analysts are focused on. A miss on cloud guidance would be the sharpest negative signal for the week's technology trade.
→ Alphabet IR · Q1 2026 Earnings Call AnnouncementNational Bank Financial's economics team, per Globe and Mail reporting, expects the BoC to hold at 2.25% through all of 2026, with a gradual move higher beginning in Q1 2027. Doug Porter at BMO Economics consistently ranks among the most accurate BoC forecasters in annual surveys by ForecastWatch. Both teams were writing before Sunday's Touska seizure. Their positioning on the April 29 decision and the MPR language is worth reading directly as the week progresses. The C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council (centrist-right) publishes shadow rate recommendations ahead of each BoC meeting and is a useful independent cross-check on the Big Six consensus.
→ C.D. Howe Institute · Monetary Policy CouncilState Street's April 2026 Gold Monitor reports China's official gold reserves at 2,309 tonnes as of February 2026, an all-time high. Chinese domestic gold ETF inflows were US$8.1 billion year-to-date through late March, against more than US$2 billion in outflows from Western gold ETFs over the same period. The net effect: global gold demand has a buyer base that did not sell on Friday's ceasefire news and is not affected by the Touska incident in either direction. These figures underpin Pillar 5 of the Conviction Signal in Section 05. The full Gold Monitor is the primary source.
→ State Street Gold Monitor, April 2026Alphabet on April 29 is the week's single most consequential earnings report for Canadian investors with US equity exposure through VFV or VGRO. A strong cloud result and confident AI revenue guidance supports the technology recovery that drove last week's S&P 500 gains. A miss on cloud guidance reverses it. On the Canadian macro side, read the C.D. Howe Monetary Policy Council's April shadow recommendation alongside the BoC's April 29 statement for an independent cross-check on the rate outlook.
Statistics Canada releases March CPI this morning. February came in at 1.8% year-over-year (Table 18-10-0004-01). March captures the war's first wave of Canadian energy price pressure. Watch CPI-trim and CPI-median alongside the headline. Both are the BoC's preferred core measures. The base-year effect from the 2025 GST/HST break ends with this release, adding upward pressure to the year-over-year comparison. This print does not reflect Sunday's events, which occurred after the reference period.
→ StatCan CPI · Table 18-10-0004-01Waste Connections (TSX/NYSE: WCN) reports Q1 2026 financial results after the market closes on April 22. Per the company's March 25, 2026 IR press release, the investor conference call is scheduled for April 23 at 8:30 AM ET. Preregistration is available at investors.wasteconnections.com. The company guided to $9.9–$9.95 billion in full-year 2026 revenue and margin expansion in its February earnings. Fuel is a significant operating cost for waste collection. Q1 margin commentary and any revision to 2026 guidance are the key items to watch.
→ Waste Connections · Q1 2026 Earnings Announcement, March 25, 2026The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45 AM ET on April 29, with the full Monetary Policy Report released simultaneously. This is the BoC's first MPR to incorporate the Iran war's effects on the Canadian economy in its published projections. The rate itself is expected to hold at 2.25%. The MPR's risk scenario language and the growth and inflation forecast ranges will be more informative than the rate decision. Governor Macklem's press conference begins at approximately 10:30 AM ET.
→ Bank of Canada · April 29 Rate Decision and MPRAlphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) holds its Q1 2026 results call at 1:30 PM PT / 4:30 PM ET on April 29, per the company's April 7, 2026 IR announcement at abc.xyz/investor. The earnings release will be available on the IR page before the call. Q4 2025 showed Google Cloud growing 48% year-over-year. The two numbers to watch: cloud revenue growth rate in Q1 versus Q4, and whether Alphabet's guidance implies AI advertising revenue is accelerating alongside the $175–$185 billion 2026 capex commitment.
→ Alphabet IR · Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Confirmed April 7, 2026Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) reports Q1 2026 results on Wednesday, April 29. The conference call is scheduled for 2:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET, per Amazon IR. AWS revenue grew 24% year-over-year in Q4 2025. Amazon's management has signalled $200 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, up from $131 billion in 2025, driven by AI data centre buildout. Q1 results will show whether that AWS growth rate held through the Iran war's macro disruption and whether advertising revenue, which grew 23% in Q4 2025, is tracking expectations.
→ Amazon IR · Q1 2026 Earnings Call, April 29, 2026Iran's state news agency IRNA stated Sunday that Tehran rejected the second round of talks, attributing Iran's absence to "Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade." Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency, in reporting Reuters also carried, said earlier there was no decision to send a delegation to Pakistan while the US blockade continued. The ceasefire expires Wednesday. EIA publishes its Weekly Petroleum Status Report Wednesday mornings. Baker Hughes rig count publishes Friday afternoons. WTI crude's Monday open, already up approximately 7% to the $90–91 range, is the first data point confirming Scenario C conditions in the Section 02 risk map.
→ Reuters · Iran No Decision on Pakistan Delegation, April 19, 2026 → EIA · Weekly Petroleum Status Report