◆ Signals
XIC TSX Composite ETF ·
VFV S&P 500 Index ETF ·
RY Royal Bank of Canada ·
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources ·
SHOP.TO Shopify Inc. ·
ENB Enbridge Inc. ·
CAD/USD BoC Noon Rate ·
BoC Rate 2.25% Hold ·
WTI ~$99 Monday Open ·
XRE Conviction Signal ·
VGRO Vanguard Growth Portfolio ·
CGL.C Gold $4,720/oz ·
XIC TSX Composite ETF ·
VFV S&P 500 Index ETF ·
RY Royal Bank of Canada ·
CNQ Canadian Natural Resources ·
SHOP.TO Shopify Inc. ·
ENB Enbridge Inc. ·
CAD/USD BoC Noon Rate ·
BoC Rate 2.25% Hold ·
WTI ~$99 Monday Open ·
XRE Conviction Signal ·
VGRO Vanguard Growth Portfolio ·
CGL.C Gold $4,720/oz ·
◆ Champlain Analytics · Toronto

Independent research
for the Canadian
investor.

Weekly intelligence in Northern Bearing and daily signals in Traverse. Built for self-directed Canadians managing TFSAs, RRSPs, and portfolios without paying Bay Street for the privilege.

◆ Latest Issue - Northern Bearing
Latest Issue Issue #05 Monday, May 11, 2026
Canada Lost 18,000 Jobs in April. Oil Reversed 4% Overnight. This Is the Most Compressed Macro Week of 2026.

The April Labour Force Survey confirmed 18,000 jobs lost and unemployment at 6.9%, the worst miss of the year. WTI fell 7% last week on ceasefire hopes, then reversed 4% higher overnight as Trump called Iran's response unacceptable. US April CPI lands at 8:30 AM Tuesday. The Trump-Xi Beijing summit runs Wednesday. BoC Summary of Deliberations publishes Thursday. Everything resolves this week.

Read the full brief
◆ Key Signals This Issue
◆ Conviction Signal · XRE
Three independent signals point against a BoC June hike. Canadian REITs were priced for one. The sell-off may have been premature.
◆ Notable Move · SHOP.TO
Revenue +34%, GMV $101B. Stock fell 15% on earnings day on writedowns and guidance language. Now down 32% YTD.
◆ Watch · US CPI May 12
April headline consensus 3.7-3.8%. A print above 3.8% puts a Warsh-era Fed hike into market pricing. Drops 8:30 AM ET Tuesday.
◆ Conviction Signal Inside
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