The US and Iran agreed on a ceasefire framework that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI has traded near $91 all day. The deal is not yet signed. Trump says he will not rush. Three LNG tankers already moved through the Strait. Thursday delivers RBC Q2 earnings and the BoC Financial Stability Report within four hours of each other.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All investment decisions are the reader's own.
The United States and Iran agreed on a memorandum of understanding framework for a 60-day ceasefire extension that would demine and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The terms: Iran may freely sell oil during the period; the US releases $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets; the US naval blockade lifts; minesweeping begins. The deal has not been formally signed. Trump stated Monday that it "isn't even fully negotiated yet" and Washington would maintain the blockade until a final agreement is completed. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed consensus on many topics but said no one can claim signing is imminent. Despite the unsigned status, ship-tracking data confirmed three LNG tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday en route to Pakistan, China, and India. The market is pricing in the framework, not the signature.
↗ Washington Post · ↗ Al Jazeera — May 25, 2026Statistics Canada's April CPI release put headline inflation at 2.8% year-over-year, below the 3.1% consensus. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures (trimmed mean and median) averaged 2.1% YoY in April, down from 2.3% in March and the lowest reading since 2022. Excluding gasoline, inflation ran at 2.0% YoY. TD Economics: "There is little argument yet for Bank of Canada rate hikes here." RBC Economics left its base case unchanged: rates on hold through 2026. With WTI now at $91 and the energy component of May CPI set to fall materially, the April core reading understates how much the inflation picture has changed in three weeks.
↗ StatCan — CPI April 2026The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed US CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year in April, the highest since May 2023. Core CPI rose 2.8% annually. A statistical artifact from the October 2025 government shutdown inflated the April shelter component by approximately 0.2 percentage points, a one-time correction flagged by TD Economics and EY analysts as a distortion that will fall out of the May reading. More relevant for June 10: the May CPI, releasing at 8:30 AM ET on June 10, the same morning as the BoC rate decision, will cover a full month with WTI below $95 rather than above $100. That May reading should be the most deflationary US CPI print of 2026.
↗ BLS — Consumer Price Index, April 2026The Bank of Canada announces its June 10 decision at 9:45 AM ET. The BLS releases US May CPI at 8:30 AM ET the same day. If the Iran framework holds through May and WTI averages $88-92 for the month, the May US CPI print will be materially below April's 3.8%. The Governing Council will read that data 75 minutes before voting. Canada's own June 22 CPI, the first release using updated StatCan basket weights, covers May and will also reflect lower energy costs. Both readings land after the June 10 BoC decision, but the US data lands before it. The question for June 10 is no longer hold or hike. It is hold or whether the Council signals an opening toward a cut.
The Bank of Canada's hike argument was already closed by three data points before today: Canada's April core CPI at a four-year low, the April jobs miss to 6.9% unemployment, and three weeks of falling oil prices. The Iran framework, even without a signature, has now also reduced the energy-inflation argument by pricing WTI at $91. June 10 is a hold. The more interesting question is whether the BoC begins using language that opens the door to a cut. Thursday's BoC Financial Stability Report at 10:00 AM ET bankofcanada.ca is the first major signal of how the Governing Council frames the second half of 2026. Read the executive summary before any journalist interprets the press conference headline.
The Canadian Big Six enter Q2 earnings season with three independent signals pointing in the same direction. First, institutional positioning before the report: TSX financials led the market last week, rising approximately 2% while energy declined. RBC reached a 52-week high of $257.91 on Wednesday May 20. Institutional money positioning at a 52-week high ahead of earnings signals that the expectation is confirmation, not surprise. Second, Q1 2026 baseline: RBC posted EPS of $4.04 (up 14% year-over-year), net income of $5.64 billion (up 13%), and revenue of $16.9 billion (up 7.5%). CEO Dave McKay described the starting position as one of strength. Third, the monetary policy environment: RBC Economics, TD Economics, and CIBC Capital Markets all project the BoC on hold through 2026 — a rate environment that removes the primary shock scenario for Canadian mortgage books. No sudden rate hike means no sudden renewal stress. The bear case for Thursday is provisions for credit losses rising on consumer strain from sustained high energy costs and tariff-exposed employment — that risk is real and it is why this signal earns Conviction heading into the print, not before it. Thursday's result either confirms the thesis or resets the entire sector for TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC, and National Bank reporting the week of June 1-5.
↗ rbc.com/investor-relations · ↗ RBC Economics · rbc.com/economics
This is not a recommendation. Do your own research before acting.
WTI held near $91 throughout Monday's session, down approximately 5.8% from Friday's $96.60 close, as the market priced in the Iran ceasefire framework despite the lack of a formal signature. XEG, CNQ, Suncor, and Cenovus all declined in the session. The distinction matters: the market is pricing the framework as directionally final even while Trump manages expectations. Three LNG tankers already moved through the Strait, which the market is reading as a de facto partial reopening. CNQ's break-even sits near US$43 per barrel. The free cash flow thesis holds at $91. The valuation premium from $100 oil does not.
The TSX opened Monday at 34,027, down from Friday's 34,471 close, and has traded in the 33,744-34,175 range through the afternoon session. US markets are closed. The energy sector's decline on $91 WTI outweighed the financial sector's pre-RBC earnings positioning. This is the anticipated outcome of the Iran deal hitting a market without full North American liquidity: thin-volume sessions amplify sector moves. The TSX's true direction for the week resolves Tuesday when the NYSE opens and institutional investors in both countries trade the Iran deal simultaneously for the first time.
The NYSE and Nasdaq are closed for Memorial Day. US equity futures operated with reduced hours. The S&P 500 closed Friday at record levels above 7,400. When US markets resume Tuesday, the Iran deal framework, the $91 WTI, and the TSX's Monday performance will all be absorbed simultaneously with full liquidity. The S&P 500 energy sector will reprice the Hormuz framework. US financial stocks face the read-through from Thursday's upcoming RBC print. Tuesday's open is the signal that Monday's TSX session cannot provide.
The TSX Composite is approximately 35% financials and 18% energy. Both sectors are in motion in opposite directions. Energy declines as oil falls toward the forward curve's December target of $81. Financials enter Thursday at a 52-week high in RBC. If Thursday's RBC Q2 print confirms clean credit quality and manageable provisions for credit losses, the financial sector re-rates and the TSX recovers the week's oil-driven losses. If RBC's credit quality disappoints, the TSX loses ground in both its largest sectors simultaneously. Thursday morning is the resolution.
Today's TSX decline is a function of energy selling in thin holiday volume, not a fundamental re-rating of the Canadian market. The week's real test is Thursday when RBC's Q2 credit quality data and the BoC's systemic risk assessment land within four hours of each other. If both are constructive, the TSX recovers the week's losses before Friday's Q1 GDP. If either disappoints, the June 10 conversation shifts from hold to cut rather than hold to cut. That is bond-friendly and potentially XBB-friendly but not the equity re-rating that financial sector bulls are pricing in.
XFN tracks the S&P/TSX Capped Financials Index, with RY, TD, BMO, BNS, CM, and NA as its primary holdings. For investors who want exposure to the Canadian bank Q2 earnings thesis without concentrating in a single name, XFN provides diversified access. The BoC hold environment removes the primary rate-shock risk on Canadian mortgage books. Q1 results were strong across the sector. If RBC's Thursday Q2 print is clean on credit quality (manageable provisions for credit losses, stable net interest margin, continued loan growth), XFN benefits from the read-through to the five remaining banks reporting the week of June 1-5. SEDAR+ (sedarplus.ca) has the primary filing at 6:00 AM ET Thursday.
Canadian bond prices rise when rate hike expectations fall. Since April 29: the BoC introduced conditional hike language that briefly rattled bond markets, and three data points have removed that scenario: Canada's April core CPI at a four-year low, the April LFS jobs miss to 6.9% unemployment, and WTI now at $91 reducing the energy-inflation argument. XBB holds a broad basket of Canadian government and investment-grade corporate bonds. For TFSA holders, bond ETF income distributions are sheltered entirely from tax inside the account. The June 10 BoC hold is near-certain. The June 10 CUT signal possibility is now part of the rate conversation.
Bond ETF distributions are taxed as income in a non-registered account. A TFSA shelters them entirely. XBB in a TFSA is the most efficient tax-sheltering pairing for fixed-income investors at current rates.
XEG holds CNQ, Suncor, Cenovus, and Imperial Oil, all generating positive free cash flow at $91 WTI, well above their break-even thresholds in the $43-50 range. Today's decline is a repricing of the conflict premium, not a break of the oil sands business case. The scenario that tests the thesis is a durable Hormuz reopening that sends WTI toward $75-80 by August, the path the forward curve has been pricing. At that level, free cash flow from major producers is positive but the excess returns that funded accelerated buybacks and dividend growth contract. Long-term thesis intact. Near-term valuation premium unwinding.
VFV tracks the S&P 500 in a CAD-listed wrapper. US markets are closed today. When the NYSE resumes Tuesday, VFV reprices the Iran framework and the oil move simultaneously with full US institutional participation. Lower oil reduces inflation expectations, which supports S&P 500 growth stock valuations under Warsh's Fed. The CAD has weakened slightly on lower oil, a modestly positive offset for VFV holders whose USD-denominated assets translate into more CAD. VGRO's 80/20 balanced structure captures the equity and fixed income angles simultaneously, absorbing today's volatility without requiring a portfolio decision.
The week's ETF picture has a clear structure. XBB and XRE benefit from the BoC pivot trajectory that three data points have established. XEG reprices on the Iran framework but the thesis survives $91 WTI. XFN resolves Thursday when RBC's Q2 credit quality data lands. VFV and VGRO resume full pricing Tuesday when US markets open. For investors deciding whether to act this week: Thursday morning between 6:00 AM and 9:30 AM ET, when RBC's SEDAR+ filing is live but the TSX has not yet opened, is the window where the primary data is available and price discovery has not yet occurred. Use it.
Royal Bank of Canada releases Q2 2026 results at 6:00 AM ET Thursday, May 28. Conference call at 8:30 AM ET at rbc.com/investor-relations. Q1 2026 set the baseline: EPS $4.04 (up 14% year-over-year), revenue $16.9 billion (up 7.5%), net income $5.64 billion (up 13%). The bank entered Q2 from what CEO Dave McKay described as a position of strength. The number that determines the entire financial sector's direction Thursday is provisions for credit losses. A manageable PCL print, consistent with Q1 levels, confirms that Canadian consumers absorbed the energy cost shock and tariff headwinds without material credit deterioration. A PCL surprise to the upside means the consumer credit stress that the data (6.9% unemployment, $90 WTI, food inflation at 3.5%) implied has finally shown up in bank loan books. Thursday morning at 6:00 AM ET on SEDAR+ (sedarplus.ca) has the primary filing. Three and a half hours before the TSX opens.
↗ rbc.com/investor-relations — May 28, 6:00 AM ETCanadian Natural Resources operates oil sands assets with a break-even near US$43 per barrel, confirmed in the 40-F filing on SEC EDGAR and the annual report on SEDAR+. At $91 WTI, CNQ generates free cash flow sustaining its 25-year consecutive dividend growth record and ongoing share repurchases. The oil decline from $101 six weeks ago to $91 today compresses the excess free cash flow that was funding accelerated debt reduction toward the company's $13 billion net debt target. At the forward curve's December price of approximately $81, CNQ's cash flow model still works but the acceleration premium in the buyback program contracts. Long-life oil sands assets with 30-year reserve life are designed for this kind of price cycle. The thesis does not require $100 oil. It requires oil above $50.
Shopify has not generated headline-moving news since the May 5 earnings reaction. The stock stabilized in the $105-110 range with the $2 billion share buyback providing support at current levels. No Shopify-specific catalysts arrive this week. The next quarterly data point is Q2 results, expected August. For current holders, the week's question is whether the broader market environment (lower oil, BoC hold, potential RBC credit quality confirmation) supports a re-rating of Canadian technology stocks. Analyst consensus target remains approximately $153, representing approximately 45% upside from the current trading level.
RBC Thursday is the binary event for the financial sector and the week's most consequential Canadian corporate data. The stock entered the report at a 52-week high. Institutional money positioned for confirmation. If Q2 provisions for credit losses are manageable and net interest margin holds, XFN and the broader Big Six re-rate before TD, BMO, and Scotiabank report. You have from 6:00 AM ET when SEDAR+ files to 9:30 AM ET when the TSX opens to read the primary MD&A and form a view before price discovery occurs. That window is the most valuable 3.5 hours of the week for a Canadian retail investor.
The Bank of Canada publishes its Financial Stability Report at 10:00 AM ET Thursday, four hours after RBC's Q2 earnings filing. This document assesses risks to Canada's financial system: household debt sustainability given $90-100 WTI energy costs and tariff-exposed employment; housing market conditions; banking sector resilience. This edition is the first FSR since the conflict began February 28. It will formally assess how the oil shock, tariff environment, and rising unemployment interact with Canada's elevated household debt levels. RBC's Q2 data four hours earlier provides the first primary corporate data to complement the FSR's system-wide analysis. Both are at bankofcanada.ca from 10:00 AM ET. The press conference follows at approximately 11:00 AM ET.
↗ bankofcanada.ca — FSR, Thursday May 28, 10:00 AM ETGold closed Friday at approximately $4,500 per ounce, its second consecutive weekly decline. The May 20 FOMC minutes release showed most officials believe rate increases remain possible if US inflation stays above 2%, lifting real rate expectations and weighing on non-yielding gold. Iran peace progress removed part of the geopolitical risk premium. With WTI at $91 and the Iran framework in place, the energy-driven inflation argument for holding gold weakens further in the near term. World Gold Council Q1 data confirmed central bank accumulation continued in the quarter. CGL.C (iShares Gold Bullion ETF, hedged to CAD) held in a TFSA provides exposure without currency drag and without the US dividend withholding that equity positions generate.
Three data points since April 29 have pushed Canadian bond yields lower: Canada's April core CPI at 2.1% (four-year low), the April LFS jobs miss to 6.9% unemployment, and WTI now at $91 reducing the energy-inflation argument. Short-duration Canadian government bonds and bond ETFs (XBB) benefit as the BoC hold becomes near-certain and the cut conversation enters June 10 framing. Thursday's BoC FSR adds a fourth input: if the FSR characterizes Canada's financial system as under mounting stress from household debt and energy costs, the argument for a cut rather than a hold strengthens on economic stability grounds.
With the BoC on hold and the hike scenario closed, 1-year GIC rates in the 4%+ range at major Canadian institutions represent a real return above the 2.25% overnight rate without duration risk. The concern three weeks ago, that the BoC might hike and make near-term GIC lockups look premature, has been resolved by the combination of April core CPI at 2.1% and oil at $91. For TFSA and RRSP holders with cash on the sidelines, GIC laddering across 6-month, 1-year, and 18-month tranches provides a real return while Thursday's FSR and Friday's Q1 GDP add clarity about the rate path for the second half of 2026.
GIC interest income is fully taxable in a non-registered account. A TFSA shelters it entirely. GICs in a TFSA are the most direct tax-sheltering available to conservative investors at current rates.
Thursday's BoC FSR is the document that tells you whether the Governing Council views Canada's financial system as absorbing the energy and tariff headwinds or at risk from them. If the FSR characterizes risks as manageable, June 10 is a hold with no cut signal. If the FSR flags household debt deterioration or housing market stress, the cut signal enters June 10 and bond-friendly positions (XBB, GIC ladders, XRE) benefit. Either way, the 4%+ GIC rate is the floor for conservative investors who want certainty over the next 12 months. The BoC is not cutting to 2.00% before June. It may signal that it will.
CAD/USD traded near 0.720-0.724 Monday as WTI's 5.8% decline applied downward pressure on the Canadian dollar. Canada as a net energy exporter means lower oil reduces export revenues and terms-of-trade advantage, directly weighing on the loonie. The BoC's hold-to-cut trajectory removes rate differential support that bolstered CAD in April. Monday's CAD/USD moves are amplified by thin Memorial Day liquidity. US banks are closed, US forex desks are lightly staffed, and the move lacks the depth to be read as durable. Tuesday's full North American forex liquidity is the first reliable signal. For holders of VFV in an RRSP, a weaker CAD is a modest positive for the CAD-equivalent value of USD-denominated holdings.
As of Monday afternoon, the Iran ceasefire MOU framework exists but has not been formally signed. Trump posted that the deal "isn't even fully negotiated yet" and Washington would maintain the Strait blockade until completion. Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed consensus on many topics while stating no one can claim signing is imminent. In parallel, ship-tracking data confirmed three LNG tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday to Pakistan, China, and India. The market is pricing in the framework as directionally final: WTI has held near $91 all day rather than snapping back. The bull case for energy: deal falls apart on nuclear terms and WTI spikes back to $95+. The bear case for energy: deal signs, Strait fully reopens commercially within weeks, WTI tests $80.
European and Asian markets opened the Monday session higher on Iran deal optimism. Japan's Nikkei surged to a record high. Brent crude at $97-98, down from $108 a month ago, directly reduces energy import costs for oil-importing economies. For Canadian investors with international equity exposure through XEF or VGRO's international component, the ceasefire framework is a net positive: less energy-cost drag on major trading partners translates into stronger global growth assumptions. The OECD's composite leading indicators are set to improve materially if oil settles in the $85-90 range.
Canada's most important currency variable over the next three months is not the Iran deal. It is the CUSMA renegotiation, which enters active negotiation this summer. Canada's current average US tariff rate of 5.2% is the lowest among major US trading partners. If CUSMA talks produce further tariff concessions or a durable framework extension, the loonie gets a structural support from improved trade terms. If talks break down, tariff escalation is the primary downside scenario for CAD/USD. RBC Economics flagged the CUSMA review as "potentially contentious" in its latest quarterly outlook. Watch for news from Ottawa and Washington starting in June.
The loonie faces a two-force problem this week that resolves in opposite directions: lower oil is loonie-negative; CUSMA stability is loonie-positive; BoC hold-to-cut is modestly loonie-negative; Iran deal resolution removes the geopolitical premium that had been distorting currency markets for three months. For holders of US equities in RRSP accounts (VFV, individual US-listed names), today's modest CAD weakness is a slight tailwind on the CAD value of those holdings. Confirm those US equity holdings are inside the RRSP and not the TFSA, where the Canada-US tax treaty exemption applies to dividend withholding. A weaker loonie amplifies the cost of wrong account placement over time.
Marc-André Gosselin began his term as Bank of Canada Deputy Governor today, May 25, 2026. He replaces Rhys Mendes, who departed April 10. Nicolas Vincent joins August 3. Gosselin joins a Governing Council that has lost two of six members since February and will vote on the June 10 rate decision with its new composition. Gosselin's prior role as Senior Director and Principal Researcher at the BoC signals analytical continuity rather than policy disruption. His first public communication in the role, when it comes, is worth tracking for any nuance in how the new composition frames the inflation and growth outlook. Source: bankofcanada.ca press releases.
↗ bankofcanada.ca — Press releasesRBC's Q2 2026 earnings press release, Management Discussion and Analysis, and financial statements file simultaneously on SEDAR+ and SEC EDGAR at approximately 6:00 AM ET Thursday. The TSX opens 3.5 hours later. That window is the most valuable time period of the week for a Canadian retail investor: the primary documents are live, the conference call at 8:30 AM ET adds management commentary, and price discovery has not yet occurred. The three tables that matter in the MD&A: provisions for credit losses (credit quality), net interest margin (rate sensitivity), and segment performance for Personal and Commercial Banking, Capital Markets, and Wealth Management. These tell you whether Thursday is a re-rating day or a reset day.
↗ sedarplus.ca — RBC Q2 from 6:00 AM ET May 28Statistics Canada updates the CPI basket weights to a 2025 reference period on June 15, 2026. The first CPI release using the new weights is May 2026 data, publishing June 22. This matters for investors watching the inflation trend: the basket update can shift the measured inflation rate by a few tenths of a percentage point, depending on how consumer spending patterns have shifted toward or away from high-inflation categories. The June 22 May CPI will be the first reading with updated weights AND the first covering a full month with WTI below $95. Both factors point toward a lower June 22 headline than May's energy-inflated readings.
↗ statcan.gc.ca — CPI methodologyThree free primary sources determine the week's outcome for your portfolio. SEDAR+ at 6:00 AM ET Thursday has RBC's Q2 before any analyst note. bankofcanada.ca at 10:00 AM ET Thursday has the Financial Stability Report before any press conference interpretation. statcan.gc.ca at 8:30 AM ET Friday has the Q1 GDP release before any journalism summary. These are not paywalled. They require nothing beyond a browser and the discipline to read a primary source rather than waiting for a headline. The investors who act Thursday morning are the ones who read the MD&A, not the ones who read the tweet about it.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026. Senate confirmed him May 13 by a 54-45 vote. He inherited a committee managing 3.8% US headline CPI, a $7 trillion balance sheet, and a Trump administration demanding lower rates. He now also inherits a ceasefire framework that, if finalized, will reduce May and June US energy price readings materially. His first FOMC meeting runs June 16-17 with updated Summary of Economic Projections. The June 10 May CPI, released at 8:30 AM ET the morning of the BoC decision, will be Warsh's first major inflation print as chair. If WTI averages $88-92 through May, that CPI will be the most deflationary reading of 2026. If Warsh follows through on eliminating the dot plot, June 16-17 is both his debut and the last forward guidance tool the market has had since 2012.
↗ federalreserve.gov — FOMC calendarThe April 28-29 FOMC minutes, released May 20, confirmed most officials believe a rate increase remains appropriate if US inflation stays above the 2% target. J.P. Morgan projects rates unchanged through year-end. Bank of America pushed its first cut forecast to H2 2027. These projections were made before the Iran ceasefire framework. With WTI at $91 and potentially heading toward $80, the May and June US CPI readings that feed into the June 16-17 FOMC projections will be materially lower than what the May 20 minutes were anticipating. The Warsh FOMC might receive a deflationary data set at its debut that opens the door to cuts the committee had not publicly acknowledged.
CPP Investments ($714.4 billion AUM) and the Maple 8 pension complex hold structural exposure to Canadian energy through direct infrastructure assets, pipeline positions, and public equity. WTI's move from $65 to $101 during the conflict period provided an unrequested performance lift. The decline from $101 to $91 begins removing that lift. Institutional investors with 20-year time horizons do not sell long-life energy assets on a 10% oil move. But the annual report positioning disclosures, arriving over the next two months, will reveal how the Maple 8 adjusted energy exposures in response to the conflict trajectory. CPP Investments annual report is available at cppi.com.
The institutional picture heading into Thursday is coherent: institutional investors positioned the financial sector long ahead of RBC earnings, positioned energy lower ahead of the Iran framework, and positioned bonds for a BoC hold-to-cut trajectory. Those three positioning signals align with the three independent data points this issue has identified. When institutional positioning and primary data align in the same direction, the signal has more weight than either alone. The week's resolution (Thursday RBC, Thursday FSR, Friday GDP) tells you whether the positioning was correct or premature.
RBC Q2 2026 results file on SEDAR+ at 6:00 AM ET. Conference call at 8:30 AM ET at rbc.com/investor-relations. Bank of Canada FSR publishes at 10:00 AM ET with a press conference at approximately 11:00 AM ET at bankofcanada.ca. Both are free primary sources. Both arrive before the TSX closes at 4:00 PM ET. RBC's MD&A tells you whether Canadian consumer and corporate credit absorbed Q2's headwinds. The FSR tells you whether the BoC views the financial system as resilient or stressed. Read both before the press conference interprets either.
↗ rbc.com/investor-relations · ↗ bankofcanada.caStatistics Canada releases Q1 2026 GDP by expenditure at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Q4 2025 GDP contracted 0.2% on an annualized basis. RBC Economics expects Q1 turned positive, building on retail sales resilience into February before the Iran conflict began February 28. The BoC projected Q1 at approximately 1.5% annualized in its April MPR. A positive Q1 print confirms Canada entered the oil shock from a growing position and gives the BoC additional runway at June 10. A miss, particularly if private consumption contracted, gives the Governing Council further reason to signal a cut rather than a hold. Filed at statcan.gc.ca from 8:30 AM ET.
↗ statcan.gc.ca — Q1 GDP, May 29US markets reopen Tuesday with full institutional participation. The Iran ceasefire framework, Monday's $91 WTI, and the TSX's holiday-Monday session will all be absorbed by full North American market depth for the first time. XEG's direction Tuesday morning is the signal to watch: continued selling confirms the market treats the $91-95 range as the new ceiling; a stabilization signals the repricing is complete. The same applies to the loonie. Tuesday's CAD/USD with full US forex participation is the first durable signal. Watch the Strait of Hormuz news feed for signing or collapse of the framework overnight Monday-Tuesday.